The Final Countdown

So here we are again - The Oval, South London…. the fifth and final Ashes test match is looming and the Ashes hang in the balance once again. On the surface at least the scenario is straight forward enough, the series delicately poised at 1-1 with one test to play. So if England win this match we win the Ashes, if anything else happens Australia will retain them. - simple right?


Except its not as straight forward as that is it?



The momentum has clearly shifted in Australia's favour as the series has gone on anyone who knows anything about cricket can see that. Just look back a the first test in Cardiff, England held on for a admirable draw with the last wicket - Jimmy and Monty defying the Australian bowlers for the final 45 minutes, it felt like a moral victory for us, and a missed opportunity for the Aussies. Then we moved onto the home of cricket - Lords and an Flintoff inspired England produce their best performance in years to take a 1-0 lead - everything looking rosy.... The good work continued at Edgbaston taking a fantastic 7-77 in the morning session on day two, then the turning point came, England lost their discipline, the rain interrupted the rhythm and the test petered out into another draw owing to a combination of poor weather and a lack of patience from England, - Australia comfortably held on for a draw and take back some momentum....


Onwards to Leeds and a complete disaster for England.. everything that could go wrong did go wrong... Flintoff declares himself fit only to be overruled by the selectors. Matt Prior has a back spasm playing football in the warm up - queue panic in the English dressing room, the toss is delayed by 10 minutes to allow emergency treatment for Prior. Strauss wins the toss and decides to bat, after TV interviews only and has three minutes to rush in and prepare... he is then plum LBW out on the first ball of the test, but is somehow left off the hook by the umpire. In the end it didn't make any difference as he was out soon after for a mere three runs, whilst the chaotic lead up to the start cannot be used as an excuse, there is no way Strauss was in the frame of mind he should of been, and with the rest of the England batting line up looky vunerbale what followed was all to predictable..
The England middle order collapses, tail fails to wag and we are out for 102 in 24 overs - couldn't be much worse could it? Well yes it could as the English bowlers are awful - bowling short, wide and giving away runs for fun - it really was painful to watch. (although thoroughly enjoyable if you are an Aussie I'm sure..). England were out of the test on day one - and this in a test match they knew if they won they would take an unbeatable 2-0 lead.... Australia punished England - and were better in every department - no arguments or excuses - Australia deserved the victory and England deserved the trouncing they got.


So my point is (yes there is one.. I promise!) that although its 1-1... everything looks to be in Australia's favour...


Unsurprisingly England squad have been under intense scrutiny from the press in the Headingley post mortem and the lead up to the Oval... Who has used up their chances? Who should be dropped? Who should come in? Calls for Jonathon Trott, Robert Key and even a recall for 39 year old Mark Rampakash?!?.... this sends out signals of uncertainty and desperation on England's part. Surely the selectors had a plan on who would the first choice replacements if required during the series? It appears this assumption was sadly inaccurate.


Where as in a direct comparison the Australian squad that now looks strong, stable and confident..... Australia players now fully recovered from injury and others who had lost a bit of form/confidence have worked hard to correct flaws - all positive, upbeat vibes coming out of the Australian camp - you can just tell the smell blood and sense victory is within their grasp.


So onto team news... England have dropped the under performing Bopara and opted for the untried Jonathon Trott who has been in great county form.. but is this really the platform to give someone their test debut? (brushing over the fact he is South African.. so shouldn't really be under consideration for England anyway in my opinion), only time will tell.... I am guessing Bell will be promoted to 3, and Trott in at 4.... if it was me I'd have Collingwood at 4 and Trott at 5.. but I'm not an England selector.. (although I could be..). The rest of the team will probably remain unchanged.. Strauss, Cook, Bell, Trott, Collingwood, Prior, Flintoff, Broad, Anderson, Swan and either Harmmison or Onions.


If I was Australia I would keep the exact same team that destroyed England at Headingley... With Micheal Clarke, North and Katich they have enough off-spin options to do without Hautritz. There has been talk about bring Brett Lee back - but I don't see it happening, he will be saved for the one dayers and twenty/20's... So I expect Australia will line up with Katich, Watson, Ponting, Hussey, Clarke, North, Haddin, Johnson, Siddle, S Clarke and Hilfenhaus.



Of course this is Andrew Flintoff's final test match for England and I would love to see him but in a fairytale performance with bat and ball, leading England to a famous test win and reclaim the Ashes as a fitting finale to his test career.... unfortunately not matter what way I look at it - I think this is unlikely. Fred will try his heart out without a doubt, I just don't think it will be enough. The defeat in the fourth test was far to crushing to simply brush off as a "bad three days at the office"...


My heart says England will win and Fred can go on another bender and live it up again just like 2005.. However my head and common sense points to Australia retaining the Ashes.
I hope I am completely off the mark with this rather pessimistic and depressing preview, and will be delighted to proven wrong.


Still where there is Fred there is hope..


Come On England - prove me wrong. (Please!)